The triumph of a progressive formula headed by Xiomara Castro on Sunday, twelve years after the coup against Manuel Zelaya, forces us to remember some things about Honduras.
The Central American country did not suffer the civil wars of its neighbors in the last century because the North American hegemony, especially in its Armed Forces, prevailed before any loophole of detachment.
For this reason, the coup against Zelaya in 2009 was so effective, so agreed, that there was no international pressure that could reverse it (remember the blockade of the plane that was taking him back after his expulsion together with the then president of the UN General Assembly , Miguel d’Escoto, at the airport in the capital) and his return to politics has been unanimously institutionalized.
That is to say, We are talking about an ideologically right-wing state that did not allow, or will not allow, small changes like those Zelaya tried during its management.
At that time, the Armed Forces, together with the power groups represented by the then president of the Congress Roberto Micheletti, carried out a ‘palace coup’ with which, without a shot, they expelled the legitimate president of the country, to later put all obstacles to prevent him from participating in politics.
The democrats of the world were silent in the face of a situation beyond all legality. No regional or world leader took on the task of accusing President Juan Orlando Hernández or questioning him. It was not subject to sanctions, quite the contrary.
The situation in Honduras, after the coup and some presidential ones, is that of a “democracy”, with paramilitary groups that assassinated leaders (whose most famous case was that of Berta Cáceres), the judicialization of politics and arbitrary reelection in 2017 without be constitutionally contemplated.
However, the democrats of the world were silent in the face of a situation beyond all legality. No regional or world leader took on the task of accusing President Juan Orlando Hernández or questioning him. It was not subject to sanctions, quite the contrary. Juan Guaidó, in his moment of greatest support, met with him; the US State Department does not blacklist him, or put a price on his head.
In 2019, a court in the US issued a final judgment against Tony Hernández, the deputy and brother of the current president, and in his ruling relates to the president for receiving bribes from drug trafficking.
Representatives of the US Attorney’s Office indicated that the defendant “conspired with his brother, president of Honduras, provoked brutal acts of violence and channeled drug money for campaigns of the National Party in exchange for promises of protection to drug traffickers.”
Hernández’s presidency became unpresentable. The drug trafficking issue was too obvious a matter.
The Honduran elite needed reoxygenation, take a bath of democracy, and it was time to allow the participation of Xiomara Castro, wife of Zelaya, the undisputed winner of Sunday, who comes to face the catatonic situation that has taken over the State and the political sphere.
To try to stop it, the official party, in the manner of Colombian drug trafficking, recreated, throughout its campaign, the ghost of communism represented, according to them, by the candidate. But the computations of the Honduran electoral body show that this campaign was not successful, because according to the preliminary results, the candidate took 20 points ahead of her competitor from the ruling National Party, Nasry Asfura.
New backyard boundaries
Central America is no longer a politically stable region, as it had been during the first two decades of this century, during which it experienced a post-conflict “honeymoon.”
The radicalization of some governments, the populist proposal of President Nayib Bukele in El Salvador, together with the judicial indictment for drug trafficking against the current Honduran president by the US courts, crossed all this by the problem of migration, which has become a major concern in US politics, all this means that Castro’s triumph makes US State Department advisers wonder: how far does your backyard go now?
One of the main core aspects is located in the Soto Cano military base, under the control of the US Army and used as a beachhead against insurgencies in the region.
Confirmed the results, the tension will be located in the way in which the traditional parties, the really existing institutions and the right-wing media behave in the new political scenario that was born this Sunday, where a progressive leader will occupy the presidential chair: Will he be prevented from governing like Pedro Castillo in Peru or will he have room for maneuver to exercise government and return the institutionality to its democratic channel?
The Soto Cano military base, under debate
One of the main core aspects is located in the Soto Cano military base, under the control of the US Army and used as a beachhead against insurgencies in the region.
During his tenure, Zelaya tried to convert this base into a commercial airport and that was the main reason for the subsequent discord., or at least from Barack Obama’s State Department strategy to drop it.
Even after the courts’ decision to link the current president and his party to drug trafficking, senior US Army officials continued to “cooperate” with the Honduran Armed Forces and publicly meet with government officials, often at the base itself.
Soto Cano served as the theater of US counterinsurgency operations to intervene in processes in the rest of Central America since the 1970s. For the US Government, it is a matter of principle to maintain it.
On the day of the Zelaya coup, when he was detained by military groups, they took him to that base, where there were at least 600 US military personnel, before they took him out of the country by force.
Here are some of the decisions that the president will have to make when she assumes her role: Will it seek dialogue with the US Government, for which it will have to allow their control of the military base, or will it dare to remove them from Soto Cano?
Regardless of this, political conflict will increase in this country in which the powers are frowning at the return of Zelay, whom it violently expelled.
This is Central America, the conflict continues.
Ociel Ali Lopez
He is a sociologist, political analyst and professor at the Central University of Venezuela. He has been the winner of the 2015 Municipal Prize for Literature with his book Give him more gasoline and the Clacso / Sida prize for young researchers in 2004. Collaborator in various media in Europe, the United States and Latin America.
The statements and opinions expressed in this article are the sole responsibility of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of RT.
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